← Intel
Escalation Brief

Quantum

Bitcoin's collision with quantum computing — the shrinking qubit threshold, the migration proposals, and the clock now running on the federal timeline.

12 reports · March 31, 2026 — October 8, 2026 · scroll the arc
PART 01 / 12IntelMarch 31, 2026

Google Cut the Estimated Qubit Threshold for Breaking Bitcoin by 20x

On March 31, Google's Quantum AI team published a whitepaper arguing that breaking elliptic-curve cryptography — the signature scheme securing Bitcoin — may require far fewer quantum resources than prior estimates.

PART 02 / 12IntelApril 5, 2026

Four Bitcoin Proposals for Surviving a Quantum Attack

Google's March 31 whitepaper compressed the estimated qubit threshold for breaking Bitcoin's elliptic-curve cryptography by 20x.

PART 03 / 12IntelApril 9, 2026

Two Papers Reframe Bitcoin's Quantum Threat as Mostly Misunderstood

The week after Google's quantum paper compressed the estimated hardware threshold for breaking Bitcoin's cryptography, two academic papers pushed back on how the threat is being framed in crypto media.

PART 04 / 12IntelApril 10, 2026

Bitcoin Quantum Prototypes Work Without Changing the Protocol

On April 10, Lightning Labs CTO Olaoluwa Osuntokun posted a working zk-STARK prototype to the Bitcoin developer mailing list that lets wallet owners prove key ownership without exposing their seed phrase — designed to…

PART 05 / 12IntelApril 15, 2026

BIP-361 Would Freeze Bitcoin That Doesn't Migrate to Quantum-Safe Addresses

On April 15, a group of Bitcoin developers including Casa CTO Jameson Lopp published BIP-361, titled 'Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset.'

PART 06 / 12IntelApril 22, 2026

Coinbase's Quantum Board Flags 6.9 Million Bitcoin as Vulnerable

Coinbase's Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain published its first position paper Tuesday.

PART 07 / 12IntelApril 28, 2026

Postquant Labs Shipped Quantum Protection Without a Bitcoin Soft Fork

On Tuesday, April 28, Postquant Labs announced Quip Network, a post-quantum Bitcoin wallet that uses Arch Network's Bitcoin-native smart contract layer to add WOTS+ hash-based signatures on top of Bitcoin's existing…

PART 08 / 12IntelApril 30, 2026

Project Eleven's 15-Bit Quantum Bounty, Reproduced in 20 Python Lines

On April 24, quantum security firm Project Eleven awarded its 1 Bitcoin Q-Day Prize to Italian researcher Giancarlo Lelli for breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve cryptography key on publicly accessible IBM Quantum hardware…

PART 09 / 12IntelJune 23, 2026

Trump Executive Order Moves Federal PQC Deadline to 2031

On Monday, June 22, President Trump signed two executive orders on quantum computing: one setting a target of deploying a scientifically relevant quantum computer at a national lab by 2028, and one moving the federal…

PART 10 / 12IntelSeptember 11, 2026

AI Agents and 100 Researchers Halved Google's Quantum Benchmark for Bitcoin's Curve. The Exposed Key Is What You Control

A paper posted to arXiv this week reports that more than 100 researchers and their AI coding agents, working in an open challenge run by Eigen Labs, cut a benchmark for the core arithmetic of a quantum attack on…

PART 11 / 12IntelSeptember 24, 2026

A Draft BIP Sorts Every Bitcoin Output Into 4 Quantum Exposure Classes. The Best One Available Is 'Exposed on Spend'

A draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal under review since September 18, and revised Wednesday night after a BIP editor's first pass, defines 4 exposure classes for every existing output against a quantum attacker and…

PART 12 / 12OpSecOctober 8, 2026

Europol Says the Quantum Target Is Your Exposed Key. An Ethereum Researcher Says AI Could Get There First

Europol's European Cybercrime Centre published a report on quantum computing and cryptocurrency on Wednesday, October 7, concluding that wallet keys, not blockchains, are the point of exposure, that coins behind an…

Next brief: Hormuz →

EACH STEP IS A REAL REPORT FROM THE QUANTUM SERIES, IN PUBLICATION ORDER — SEQUENCED AND LINKED, NOT INVENTED NARRATIVE. SUMMARIES ARE THE REPORTS' OWN.